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"This is the Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang but a Whimper." In his 1925 poem "The Hollow Men", T S Eliot heard the feeble cry of the last baby on earth.
Birth rates are plunging much faster than predicted. Countries are hitting record lows decades sooner than expected. Current trends continuing for ten more years could mean global population peaking in the 2050s at 9 billion, nearly 1.5 billion fewer than was previously estimated. The planet will still rotate but it will not be as we knew it; we have no idea what it will become but we'd better try to find out. Because no country has cracked the code to getting back above replacement levels once they drop under 2.1 births per woman.
The obvious way to start, obviously, is by making motherhood desirable, by promoting parenting in order to end abortion. But abortion, contraception and their root cause of feminism are sacred cows - even or especially in the Catholic Church.
Francis and Leo might pay lip service to the sacred nature of human life but the sacrifice of billions of babies to the god of self-interest goes on, unimpeded by homilies at Mass in the Novus Ordo and its new religion. Its priests preach on recycling and immigration instead of the Commandments, Humanae Vitae or faith in Jesus Christ, Who alone is Master of humanity and its future, on earth and in eternity.
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From Ian McLean QSO, writing at Bassett Brash and Hide:
Across the world it’s happening. Birth rates are well below replacement. Workforces are tightening. Populations are ageing. The cost of pensions and healthcare is rising.
Every country in red has a fertility rate below replacement as of 2023.
We in New Zealand rely heavily on immigration to staff hospitals, farms, and core services, but global competition for skilled workers is intensifying. Richer countries are scrambling for skills. Immigration can no longer be relied on to solve our problems.
The global nature of the change is obvious but unrecognised. That is called a ‘grey rhino event’.
Awareness of the impact of low fertility has risen, country by country, over the past year or so. Yet it is still almost always framed as a national problem rather than a global one. Each society sees its birth rate falling and assumes its predicament is unique. In fact, the pattern is shared across most of the world.
The global nature of the shift is obvious once seen, but rarely acknowledged.
New Zealand treats these pressures as local issues. They are not. Our future will be shaped by the global population shift, even as our own policies determine how well we adapt to it.
For much of the twentieth century, the world population grew faster each year, in exponential growth. That changed about 1964. Since then, growth has slowed steadily, driven mainly by falling birth rates rather than falling death rates.
Country by country, population growth is turning into decline. What is happening now is the mirror image of twentieth-century population growth, operating in reverse across generations.
The key measure is the Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a woman is expected to have. A Total Fertility Rate of about 2.1 is needed for long term population stability.
Around two-thirds of the world’s population now live in countries below replacement fertility, including China and India. Populations in East Asia are already shrinking. So too in Europe, although some countries are partly protected by immigration. Sub-Saharan Africa remains above replacement, but there too fertility is falling.
Because of population momentum, total world population has yet to peak and will not do so for another 50 years or so. But momentum works both ways. Fewer babies today mean fewer mums tomorrow. If fertility stays low, decline becomes self-reinforcing.
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This downturn differs from earlier population falls caused by famine, disease, or war. It is driven by social change: rising prosperity, education, urbanisation, lower child mortality, and access to contraception. It reflects women’s choices as they have gained greater control over their lives.
There are benefits. Slower growth eventually eases environmental pressure. But fewer babies today mean fewer workers tomorrow. Labour shortages emerge long before total population falls. Populations age. Pension systems and health services come under strain.
New Zealand already feels the first ripples. Our population still grows because of
immigration and demographic momentum, but births are well short of those needed to avoid long term decline. Skill shortages are already acute.
Global competition for workers will intensify. Richer countries are bidding for the same shrinking pool of talent and can outbid us for our own skilled people. We need to build the skills of our own people and then retain them, rather than rely on immigration.
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Fewer young people are available to support the growing proportion of older folk. The costs of healthcare and New Zealand Superannuation are rising and increasing pressure on government finances.
New Zealand needs a plan. No part of the existing government system is equipped to provide one. A task force is needed to develop an integrated response. We need to repeat the successful approaches of the Woodhouse Commission on ACC, and the Picot Committee’s Tomorrow’s Schools.
The likely elements are already clear. Productivity will have to rise through innovation and technology. Economic growth per head will need to be strong enough to sustain living standards and support an ageing society with a smaller workforce. To eventually halt population decline, the role of women needs to be enhanced and parenthood supported much better.
We also need to take account of the long term prospects. Because the current fertility decline is unprecedented, long‑term outcomes are hard to predict. But the projections of current trends are frightening. These projections are not forecasts but they show what happens if nothing changes.
Civilisation may not unravel with a bang. It may shrink generation by generation, empty cradle by empty cradle. The first ripples are already affecting New Zealand. New Zealand needs to plan for the consequences of falling global fertility.
Ian McLean
QSO
Rotorua
January 2026
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